2003-12-14 - 9:29 a.m.
I've been doing some paper farming lately. Paper farming is where you figure how much money you will make on a new venture without actually ever having done it. Winter is a good time to paper farm. You can sit back by the fire and let your imagination run wild. We have always had about a dozen chickens or so and sold the eggs. People have wanted the eggs so much in the last year that we've got to thinking about upping the number to 100. For about a month I paper farmed this new operation and now we have set out.
The problem with paper farming is that it's not real. You try as best you can to figure all the problems you will face along with the unexpected expenses but there are always things you forget or just didn't realize. We've gotten better over the years at doing a realistic job of paper farming. The more you farm the better your picture of what's involved and what's likely to go wrong. Even knowing that I still add about 10% to my expected costs to cover the unexpected I didn't forsee.
Every now and then someone will come by who is thinking about starting a U-Pick farm. A rare few actually come seeking advice and admit their ignorance having never done it before. They are the exception. Most come under the guise of seeking advice but they already know what they are going to do and a yoke of oxen couldn't pull them away from their plans. They have paper farmed it all out and will tell me their plans and how much they figure to make. The first thing I ask is if they have ever done anything like this before on any scale large or small. They always say no but they have studied it out. When I show them some expenses they didn't know about they look suprised and sometimes a little hurt that I would question their plans. At that point I will usually shake their hand and wish them well in the project but giving more advice is pointless. That's the danger of paper farming. You build it up in your head to the point you are more sure of your plans than the advice of someone who has done it for years.
A long time ago an Old and wise farmer gave me some advice about new ventures. "Start out small" he said, "and grow as you gain knowledge and experience.". Those words have stuck with me and guided me in all our new ventures. We have had only 12 or so chickens for several years and now we are ready to expand to 100. If the 12 had been a total flop it wouldn't be any big loss to ditch the project and chaulk it up to experience but the housing and equipment for 100 will cost about $2000. It still may not work out but when I paper farm it out I have a much better idea of the possible pitfalls and our chance of success is vastly improved I think.
Compared to the millions corporations shell out $2000 dosen't seem like much but it is to us. I watched a lot of young farmers just starting out when I was a County Agent in the early 80's. Almost all of them would take out big loans for big equipment and lease large acreages, some up to 1000 acres, with equally big plans on the amount of money they would make. Almost all failed when prices dropped. They hadn't figured in those price drops when they paper farmed it out. They should have followed the advice to start small. Most of these young guys had grown up on farms but that's not the same as running one. They lacked experience and the thought of big dollars clouded their thinking. I try to remember that and invest no more in a project than I can stand to loose.
